MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1024

ACUS11 KWNS 061737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061736
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-061930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY THROUGH SERN MT AND WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061736Z - 061930Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AFTER 18Z OVER NERN WY
AND SPREAD NEWD INTO SERN MT AND WRN SD. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. WW WILL BE NEEDED SOON.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER W
CNTRL WY SWD INTO W CNTRL CO. DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM SERN WY SEWD
THROUGH NERN CO THEN SWD ALONG THE CO-KS BORDER. SECONDARY LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER SERN WY AND MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT LOW THIS AFTERNOON. ENELY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS NERN
WY AS THE SECONDARY LOW DEEPENS AND SHIFTS ENEWD INTO WRN SD. THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXIST BENEATH 8.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALREADY
SHOWS AN AXIS OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD. WV
IMAGERY INDICATES A PRONOUNCED LEAD VORT MAX OVER S CNTRL WY LIFTING
NNEWD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER ASCENT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL WY SPREADING NEWD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THIS ASCENT INTERCEPTS THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER NERN
WY. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SLY
AND INCREASING TO 50+ KT ABOVE 500 MB WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...SOME STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS.

.DIAL.. 06/06/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

42960353 42590473 42820567 43670634 44180710 44700772
45680738 46080634 46060501 45100338 43850287

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