SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061825
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-062000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...GULF COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061825Z - 062000Z
AIRMASS ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AND 70 DEGREE
ISODROSOTHERM HAS PUSHED ABOUT 40 MILES INLAND. SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY...WITH NEW CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW
OF EXISTING GULF CONVECTION LOCATED 40 TO 50 MILES OFFSHORE. AS
THESE STORMS/OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NWD...NEW CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES AND SHORT TERM RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SBCAPE HAS INCREASED TO BETWEEN 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. WITH THE
SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 25 KTS...A FEW MULTICELLULAR
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT IS PULSE STORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIDLEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DUE TO THE
MAINLY ISOLATED/PULSE STORM MODE EXPECTED...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING AT MIDLEVELS...THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
.BRIGHT.. 06/06/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
30439222 30829105 30958909 31048744 30968591 30628540
30368540 29838532 29538557 29388615 29288699 29158779
29078895 28979047 28959108 29549216
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