MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1026

ACUS11 KWNS 062031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062031
SDZ000-NEZ000-062230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL NEB THROUGH CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 062031Z - 062230Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO N CNTRL NEB AND EVENTUALLY
CNTRL SD. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB. A DRYLINE EXTENDS
SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN NEB AND WRN KS. THE COLD FRONT WAS
FARTHER WEST ACROSS ERN WY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD
FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE AND ERN CO. THE WARM SECTOR
EAST OF THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD THIS EVENING AS UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG JET MAX ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND
INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS THE DRYLINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MIX NEWD. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HIGH BASED
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WEST OF DRYLINE ACROSS WRN NEB INTO NERN CO IN VICINITY OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS COINCIDENT WITH LEADING
EDGE OF DEEPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH WY. AS THIS ASCENT SHIFTS NEWD WITH TIME...THE CAP MAY
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE
LOW AND SOME DISTANCE DOWN THE DRYLINE. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DIAL.. 06/06/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

41990097 42730189 44690170 45470021 44659890 42399996

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