SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071816
MOZ000-KSZ000-072015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS THROUGH WRN AND NRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 071816Z - 072015Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FROM PARTS OF
ERN AND NERN KS THROUGH PARTS OF WRN AND NRN MO. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG
WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO. ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING ALONG HYBRID DRYLINE-PACIFIC FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH NWRN MO AND ERN KS. PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG.
MID LEVEL WARM AIR WITH -5 TO -6 C/KM AT 500 MB HAS BEEN ADVECTING
NEWD ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET CORE. WHILE THIS WILL NOT INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTION...IT WILL LIMIT 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES TO GENERALLY AOB 7
C/KM IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG 50 TO 60 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
WARM AIR ALOFT...INITIAL UPDRAFTS MAY BE STRONGLY TILTED AND
STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IS LIMITED.
HOWEVER...SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND SOME STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS.
.DIAL.. 06/07/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
39119281 37589486 37939607 39409498 40359412 40269240
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