SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071920
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-072115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...ERN WI...NRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 071920Z - 072115Z
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TOWARD ERN WI THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MI AND NRN IL NEXT FEW HOURS. THEAT WILL EXIST
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES. WW WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED SOON.
STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NWRN WI
SWWD THROUGH SERN MN AND ERN IA. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODES HAVE BEEN
LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY IS MOVING NEWD AT AROUND 35 TO 40 KT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS ERN WI HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DESTABILIZE THAN
FARTHER W DUE TO PRESENCE OF EXTENSIVE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THESE
CLOUDS ARE SHIFTING RAPIDLY EWD. MOREOVER...THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET
MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE IN THIS REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO
STILL BE CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER ERN WI AND STORMS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NERN WI APPEAR ELEVATED ABOVE THE CAP.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AND STORMS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD INTO THIS AREA FROM THE WEST AND
NEW SURFACE BASED STORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF EXISTING STORMS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG.
.DIAL.. 06/07/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
43238791 41948861 41158964 41249039 42259011 45228925
46678832 46058663 44398744
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment