MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1062

ACUS11 KWNS 081808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081808
NYZ000-PAZ000-081945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT FRI JUN 08 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN PA AND WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081808Z - 081945Z

..STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY
BETWEEN 19-20Z.

AT 18Z...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD
ACROSS NWRN OH AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT AND A LONG LIVED SUPERCELL WAS
LOCATED A COUPLE OF COUNTIES SOUTHWEST OF CLEVELAND. WV IMAGERY
SHOWED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS LOWER MI
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS
NWRN PA/WRN NY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
DEVELOPING/SPREADING INTO NWRN PA BY 20Z.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 WERE
RESULTING IN MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG. THIS AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
THREAT FOR STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO CONTAIN
MID LEVEL ROTATION...AND VEERED WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 1-2KM
INDICATE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.IMY.. 06/08/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

40487894 41078040 42288049 43297874 43227679 42977669
42427684 41587760

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