SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091831
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-092000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT SAT JUN 09 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX...SRN/ERN OK...SRN AR AND NRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 091831Z - 092000Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NRN
TX...SRN AND ERN OK...SRN AR AND NRN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND PERHAPS SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE
INCLUDED FOR THIS AREA ON THE 20Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
SOUTH OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...A WEAKLY CAPPED AND
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WAS PRESENT WITH MLCAPES FROM 3500 TO
4500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER ALOFT WAS LOCATED IN LA AND THIS IS RESULTING IN WEAK
WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE EXTREME AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS THAT BRIEF...BUT STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS.
DUE TO THE PULSE NATURE OF THE STORMS...A WATCH IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH
ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF STRONG/SEVERE MICROBURSTS AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
.IMY.. 06/09/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
32159207 32479640 33469935 34829883 35359747 35379575
34349217 33689130 32629112
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