MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1073

ACUS11 KWNS 091935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091935
NMZ000-COZ000-092130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT SAT JUN 09 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NM/SOUTHEAST CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091935Z - 092130Z

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF NM INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST CO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE EXPANDED INTO EASTERN
NM/SOUTHEAST CO WITH THE 20Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK...AND A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA FEATURES STRONG
STORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NM...AS WELL
AS ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST NM NEAR LAS
VEGAS. OTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF CLOVIS AS OF 1930Z...AS
THE EASTERN NM PLAINS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE. PER 12Z
RAOBS/LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT EXISTS
ACROSS MUCH OF NM...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES SOME 150 PERCENT OR
NORMAL OR HIGHER...MANIFESTED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/SOME
LOWER 60S F ACROSS THE EASTERN NM PLAINS...WITH MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER
50S F WELL WEST INTO INTERIOR NM. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE
VERTICAL SHEAR /AS HIGH AS 30 KT PER NM PROFILERS/ WILL SUPPORT
SOMEWHAT SUSTAINED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY AS WELL.

.GUYER.. 06/09/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

34160874 35320873 36140784 36830611 37510463 37310333
33870310 32220385 32030541 32510627 32940696 33060790
33200834

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