MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1096

ACUS11 KWNS 111953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111953
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-112200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHEAST WY INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111953Z - 112200Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHEAST WY INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 2030Z.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES 1003 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST SD...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE MT/ND
BORDER...ANGLING INTO NORTHEAST/CENTRAL WY. LEE TROUGH NOTED
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO FAR EASTERN WY/FAR WESTERN NEB
INTO NORTHEAST CO. GIVEN ADDITIONAL HEATING/LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERN MT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ON THESE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...AND OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS
THE BLACK HILLS/BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS INTERIOR WY...AS WELL AS THE BLACK HILLS IN WESTERN SD WHERE
A SPECIAL 19Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM RAPID CITY IS REFLECTIVE OF A VERY
HOT/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
DAKOTAS...WITH 50S F IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MT/NORTHEAST WY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHEAST WY TO GREATER THAN
3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF ND/NORTHERN SD. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ROTATING
STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.GUYER.. 06/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

45460755 45870677 45950540 46940438 48770321 48840100
48490025 46520023 44780046 43330140 43300317 43790397
44060513 44580605 44700706

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