SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131726
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-131830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NC/SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131726Z - 131830Z
WW IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SRN NC AND SC THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS HAS
WEAKENED THE INHIBITION AS NOTED BY EXTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF CU/TCU
FIELD OVER THIS REGION. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD BE GENERALLY PULSE...ESPECIALLY INLAND
FROM THE SEA BREEZE AND FARTHER N FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION NOW LOCATED ALONG GA/FL BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE
LOCALLY ENHANCED AND SUPPORT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION ACROSS ERN SC WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION CENTER. OTHER THAN
THE SEA BREEZE...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LACK OF BOUNDARIES
THAT WOULD FOCUS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF TSTMS.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3-1.5 INCHES
SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH/
HOUR.
.PETERS.. 06/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...
31638196 32628199 33788211 34838203 35318103 35527948
35537862 35007751 34217777 33647819 33557876 33077909
32497988 31888060 31528088 31368151
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