SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131736
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-132000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...FAR ERN OK/TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131736Z - 132000Z
SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH A COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. A FEW OF THE
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO POSE A SVR THREAT SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT
WITH LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. WW IS
LIKELY...POSSIBLY BY 19Z.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS WERE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OF
SERN CO. RECENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
A SFC LOW CENTERED IN THE ERN OK PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX
PANHANDLE. A SLOW WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE SFC
LOW ESEWD TO NEAR ALVA AND THEN TO JUST NW OF OKC. RECENT RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE MODIFIED 12Z OUN/DDC SOUNDINGS INDICATED
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 80-85 DEG F OVER THE AREA...WHICH
HAVE BEEN REACHED AT 17Z. HOWEVER... CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS
TO STILL BE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AWAY AS SOME SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH /PER WV IMAGERY/ AND
GRAVITY WAVES BENEATH A CAPPING INVERSION WERE NOTED OVER SWRN KS. A
FEW MORE HOURS HEATING WILL SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
MLCAPES FROM 2500-3500 J/KG /GREATEST OVER WRN OK/. ALONG WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE CONVERGENCE NEAR BOTH BOUNDARIES...TSTM INITIATION IS
EXPECTED BY 20Z. BASED ON THE 12Z AMA SOUNDING...25-30 KTS OF MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WEAKER WINDS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW OVER SWRN KS.
WITH BACKED 10-15 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS /ESPCLY INVOF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/ MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR /AROUND 35 KTS/ SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND POSSIBLY VERY
LARGE HAIL. GIVEN WEAKER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS FURTHER NORTH...A
MORE MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE IS EXPECTED OVER SWRN KS. RECENT VWP
DATA FROM VANCE AFB INDICATED FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /15-20
KTS OF 0-1 KM VECTOR SHEAR/ JUST EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
COMBINED WITH ENHANCED VORTICITY INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
FAIRLY HIGH 0-3 KM CAPE /150 J/KG/... ANY SUPERCELL THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO /ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/.
.CROSBIE.. 06/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
35599767 37189915 38099989 38220029 37980109 37590119
36270066 35640034 35080042 34760029 34519925 34829834
35049769
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