SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131858
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-132100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN MS/AL...SERN/SCENTRAL LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 131858Z - 132100Z
SCT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ISOLATED DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SERN
LA /NEAR NEW ORLEANS...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD
ACROSS SRN LA...AND SEVERAL SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER FAR SERN
LA...FAR SRN MS/AL. THESE BOUNDARIES SHOULD AID TO FOCUS SCT-NMRS
TSTMS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPES FROM
2500-3500 J/KG. THE AREA REMAINS ON THE WRN EXTREMITY OF BROAD NLY
FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER SERN GA...WITH RECENT SLIDELL VWP DATA
INDICATING 15-20 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN LOW LEVEL SLY
FLOW...THERE SHOULD EXIST ENOUGH SHEAR FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. DRY MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME DMGG WIND THREAT. RELATIVELY MARGINAL
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT THE SVR
HAIL THREAT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK ORGANIZATION AND MARGINAL SVR
THREAT...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
.CROSBIE.. 06/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
30318733 31128768 31408909 31338997 30419059 30119237
29499252 29079119 29059010 29238931 29908869
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment