SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141820
OKZ000-TXZ000-142015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SWRN OK...NWRN/NCENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141820Z - 142015Z
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG SEVERAL
DIFFERENT BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH THESE TSTMS...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE
20Z.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS/MESONET SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN
OK /NEAR LTS/. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS LOW INTO NWRN TX
AND THEN SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX /FROM NEAR YOUNG COUNTY TO CONCHO
COUNTY/. WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED ESEWD FROM THE LOW ALONG
THE RED RIVER. CONVECTION WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE RED RIVER WHERE MINIMAL CINH REMAINS. AIRMASS WAS
DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE REST OF AREA WITH MODERATE TO VERY HIGH
INSTABILITY /1500-3000 J/KG/ OF MLCAPE AND LESS THAN 50 J/KG OF
MLCINH. WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND MODEST CONVERGENCE...TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEAR THE SFC LOW AND SWD ALONG THE SFC TROUGH
INTO NWRN TX BY 20Z. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WAS RATHER WEAK /15-25
KTS/...ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SWRN/CENTRAL OK WILL HELP TO AUGMENT
THE SHEAR AND MAY SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. FURTHER SOUTH
OVER CENTRAL/NWRN TX...PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THERE SHOULD STILL EXIST AN ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT.
OVER SWRN OK...INVOF THE SFC LOW...MODEST LOW LEVEL VORTICITY AND
0-3 KM CAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
WITH ANY STORM THAT EXHIBITS BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE.
FURTHER NW...DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE...AN ISOLATED SVR
TSTM MAY DEVELOP IN BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SERN TX
PANHANDLE/LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE STRONGER NWLY FLOW /30 KTS AT 500
MB/ WILL AUGMENT MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/.
.CROSBIE.. 06/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...
33320046 33820099 34300116 34650078 35289991 35359792
35159747 34189717 33059741 32449749 31729775 31129843
30649910 30649945 31210010 32369938 33079912
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