SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141859
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-142000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN ND/FAR NERN SD AND NWRN/WEST CENTRAL
MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141859Z - 142000Z
WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SERN ND AND NWRN/
WEST CENTRAL MN.
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED THINNING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE SURFACE HEATING
AND SUBSEQUENT DECREASING INHIBITION FOR CU FORMATION. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER FAR SERN ND/ERN SD INTO FAR
WRN MN ALONG WEAK ZONES OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE...AND JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING SLOWLY NNEWD
OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NERN SD AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
RATHER WEAK /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/ SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED STRONGER
0-3 KM MLCAPE /UP TO 100-125 J/KG/ FROM NERN SD/SERN ND INTO
ADJACENT PARTS OF MN. SURFACE VORTICITY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IS ALSO
STRONG WHICH WOULD TEND TO PROMOTE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL
STORM ROTATION.
.PETERS.. 06/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
45489707 45639793 46019866 47329747 48019649 47999516
47279475 45509589
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