SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161750
NYZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-161945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN NY...CENTRAL/ERN PA...NJ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161750Z - 161945Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND/ERN NY
SWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NERN PA INTO EXTREME NWRN NJ. ACTIVITY IS
FORMING ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITHIN RUC ANALYZED MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH /500 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C/ THAT IS ROTATING WWD ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. STRONG DIURNAL INSOLATION HAS WARMED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80F STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM AGL AND RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND RESULTANT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN MINIMAL TILT TO UPDRAFTS AND INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF PULSE
STORMS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CELLS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND/OR BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO ISSUE A WW.
.WEISS.. 06/16/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
40677801 41417746 42167584 43457445 43837408 44197304
44207245 41997256 40997325 39857410 39797595 40207772
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