SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161937
MTZ000-WYZ000-162030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 161937Z - 162030Z
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU INCREASING FROM THE CNTRL ID
MTNS NEWD INTO SWRN MT...IN RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NW. SATELLITE SOUNDER/GPS DATA INDICATE MOISTURE IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING NWWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL MT...WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS NOW IN THE LOW 50S AS SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH SEASONABLY
COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -15C WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG EXPECTED
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS STRENGTHEN AND EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING
WITH HEIGHT AS STRONG WSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW /40-50 KT AT 500
MB/IS PRESENT OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
ONE STRONG/SEVERE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN HILL CNTY
MT...AND ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SWRN
AND WEST CENTRAL MT WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHERE STRONGER
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED. IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN
PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THEY SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT...ASSOCIATED
CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPHS AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION. THIS
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER CELLS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
.WEISS.. 06/16/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...
45221256 46461298 48121186 48981096 48970755 47890780
46730820 45380841 44980949 45041148
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