SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162053
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-162300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SERN MT...WRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 162053Z - 162300Z
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NWRN/NORTH
CENTRAL WY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. ACTIVITY IS ALONG
THE SRN EDGE OF 40-45 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS...WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE OF AROUND
500 J/KG. AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY MOVE ENEWD THEY WILL ENCOUNTER AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE 55-60F RANGE AND MLCAPE INCREASES TO 1500-2000 J/KG. IF
STORMS CAN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD OFF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS OF SERN MT/NERN WY AND BECOME SURFACE BASED THEY HAVE
POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY. WIND PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT AS SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO
WSWLY IN THE MID LEVELS...RESULTING IN 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE
VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION. AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLE WW BY
22-23Z.
.WEISS.. 06/16/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
44360728 45280702 45850626 45990439 45540317 44520278
43750292 43150357 42960564 43110737
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