SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172053
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-172230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...PANHANDLE/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WRN/CENTRAL
SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 172053Z - 172230Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING OVER NERN WY IN MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DYNAMIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...HIGH BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DRYLINE OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE WITHIN DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD AND NEWD INTO PARTS OF
WRN/CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED SOON.
MESOSCALE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE CAP IS WEAKENING OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE NEWD INTO THE WRN HALF OF SD...SUGGESTING THAT POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS INCREASING. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS WRN SD AND SWD
EXTENDING DRYLINE INTO NEB COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING IN WARM
SECTOR AND INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE
INITIATION OF NEW STORMS DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT OVER WY AND WRN/NORTH CENTRAL SD WHICH
WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. AS STORMS MOVE INTO
MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY /ESPECIALLY OVER SD/...THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL INCREASE.
.WEISS.. 06/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
41810386 42290319 43010284 43240325 43360363 43330416
43380558 43550656 44290674 45050507 45210352 45540193
46110124 46059940 45339835 43189932 41970057 41420222
41320374
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