SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172144
SDZ000-NDZ000-172315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND/CENTRAL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 172144Z - 172315Z
WITH A SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING...ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL BE COORDINATED/ISSUED WITHIN THE
HOUR FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND/CENTRAL SD.
LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES 996 MB SURFACE LOW AND
ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
AREAS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF I-94 IN ND...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL ND INTO WESTERN SD. SPECIAL 18Z/21Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM BISMARCK AND ABERDEEN SUGGEST THAT WARMING
HAS CONTINUED TO OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CAPPING STILL PREVENT IN THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR AS
CONFIRMED VIA LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING...MOST LIKELY ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...INITIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF ND/SD. MAXIMIZED JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN ND...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WHILE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE PREDOMINANT...A FEW
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL ND.
.GUYER.. 06/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
47400171 48260054 47539865 45319816 44389858 44380028
46330153
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