SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191903
VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-191930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1198
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN OH TO NWRN-NRN PA INTO MUCH OF NY TO
WRN VT AND NRN NJ
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418...
VALID 191903Z - 191930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418
CONTINUES.
NEW WW NEEDED SOON TO THE EAST OF WW 418.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDED FROM LAKE HURON SWWD THROUGH
WRN OH TO SRN IND. AIR MASS EAST OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS WW 418
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
30-40 KT ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA/FAR WRN NY AS THESE LOCATIONS ARE
CLOSER TO STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM INTO ERN NY/HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...STRONG SURFACE HEATING
/TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S/ WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
/SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/ HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/.
GIVEN THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER...ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AS THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADS EWD.
.PETERS.. 06/19/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
45117252 43457281 41277366 40697412 40527511 40877612
40997662 40338041 39318358 40068379 40788385 41678254
42907952 43337904 44247676 45097542
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