MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1216

ACUS11 KWNS 201939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201939
TXZ000-NMZ000-202115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX...FAR S-CNTRL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 201939Z - 202115Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...W OF THE BIG BEND INTO FAR S-CNTRL NM OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LOCALIZED AREAL EXTENT AND RELATIVELY MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...A WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE
MTNS IN ASSOCIATION WITH W/SWWD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM MORNING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TO THE W OF THESE TSTMS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 90S WITH
DEW POINTS REACHING IN TO THE 50S ON E/SELY WINDS. MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIALLY SEVERE
DOWNDRAFTS AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES W. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
MITIGATING FACTOR TO MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW.

.GRAMS.. 06/20/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

33050661 32520551 31730490 30860451 30270454 29930482
30980569 31690687 31900767 32870749

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