SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202001
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-202100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN SD INTO WRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 202001Z - 202100Z
WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF SWRN SD INTO WRN NEB LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER ERN MT...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING 40-50 KT WNWLY JET ALONG
THE MT/WY BORDER. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD
BOUNDARY OR LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN KS NWD INTO SWRN
SD...WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPING FROM 65 W VTN TO 45
SW PHP. AIR MASS ALONG/E OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MOIST WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG
SURFACE HEATING /TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S/ BENEATH PLUME OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /GREATER THAN 8.5 C/KM/ IS RESULTING IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG/. AS ASCENT
WITH MT IMPULSE SPREADS SEWD THIS AFTERNOON...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE AS IT ENCOUNTERS AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALONG/E OF LEE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS PRESENT CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER SERN
WY/FAR NRN CO TO SWRN NEB PANHANDLE SPREADS EWD INTO GREATER
INSTABILITY AND GROWS UPSCALE BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE.
.PETERS.. 06/20/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...
44080299 44260178 43690101 41850130 40910208 40600318
40920393 42700356
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment