SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221921
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-222115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN IA...
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221921Z - 222115Z
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER ERN NEB AND WRN IA IN THE WAKE OF
AN MCV MOVING ACROSS NRN IA...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...IS RESULTING IN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT
APPEARS LIMITED TO THE WEST OF THE MCV WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS.
HOWEVER...17Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CIN IS MINIMAL OVER ERN NEB
INTO WRN IA AND AS STRONG DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUES...LIFTED
PARCELS MAY REACH THEIR LFC WITHIN ENHANCED CU FIELD ALONG HSI/OMA
AXIS. WINDS ALOFT FROM FBY PROFILER AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /20-30 KT IN THE LOWEST 6
KM/ TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ONCE LIFTED
PARCELS REACH THE LFC. AREA WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
.WEISS.. 06/22/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
40019723 40039858 40379905 41609899 42059717 42429616
42579561 41879516 40329460 39959592
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