SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242057
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-242300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NERN ND...NWRN MN...EXTREME NRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 242057Z - 242300Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STATIONARY FRONT FROM FAR NW MN INTO WRN ND.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PERSISTS WITHIN THIS ZONE WITH DEWPOINTS
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. 20Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING SHOWS
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER 17C AT 700 MB WITH CAP IN PLACE. GIVEN
CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS HEAT AXIS...CAP IS
LIKELY TO HOLD UNTIL LIFT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OCCURS THIS
EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM WOULD BE ALONG
FRONT OVER NERN ND AND NWRN MN WHERE CAPPING IS LEAST. CAP COULD
LOCALLY BE BREACHED DUE TO DEEPENING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
BENEATH. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WOULD POSE A VERY LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADO RISK AS WELL. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT LIKELY BUT WOULD
REQUIRE A TORNADO WATCH IF DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
BECAME IMMANENT.
.JEWELL.. 06/24/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...
48060134 48919923 49419702 49179625 48719641 47829646
46719879 46119999 45510048 45240097 45100159 45100198
46540187 47310175
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