SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261948
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-262115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...PARTS OF NE NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261948Z - 262115Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS INITIATING NEAR WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE/
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF WEAK SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY IN RESPONSE
TO HEATING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...AS LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
INDICATES INHIBITION IS BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. WITH FURTHER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH 22-23Z. AND...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR BENEATH 30-40 KT NORTHERLY 500 MB FLOW ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
.KERR.. 06/26/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
37470442 37400308 37340194 36580115 35690082 34620052
33940029 33420022 32960118 33550244 35210280 36220363
36610414
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