MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1332

ACUS11 KWNS 301928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301928
NMZ000-TXZ000-302200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301928Z - 302200Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NM
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR
THREAT AS THEY MOVE SSWWD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY AND
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION OF CENTRAL NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR
THREAT.

RECENT VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MDT/TOWERING CU HAS FORMED OVER THE
SACRAMENTO AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. SEVERAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...GIVEN CONTINUED
HEATING AND LIMITED REMAINING CINH. A BELT OF MODEST NNELY MID LEVEL
FLOW EXISTS TO THE WEST OF THE SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW WHERE PROFILER
DATA FROM WHITE SANDS AND TUCUMCARI BOTH INDICATED 25-30 KTS AT 4-6
KM. GIVEN WEAKENING CINH OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS ...SEVERAL CLUSTERS
OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SSWWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS BEGINNING AROUND 22Z. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS. GIVEN EXPECTED MODEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/...THE SVR THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WW.

.CROSBIE.. 06/30/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

31820739 33130736 34850691 35810655 36420586 36850525
36870492 36460459 35910462 33980530 32950529 31980620
31730669

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