WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 338

WWUS20 KWNS 031831
SEL8
SPC WW 031831
NMZ000-TXZ000-040300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MIDLAND TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 336...WW 337...

DISCUSSION...INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NEAR AND
JUST E OF HIGH TERRAIN IN SE NM IN ADVANCE OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EWD...WHILE THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
WARM/DESTABILIZE FARTHER E/SE INTO W/SW TX. A SEPARATE WNW-ESE
ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRIFTING SWD TO NEAR MIDLAND. STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG / AND A WEAKENING CAP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...THE EXPECTED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES MAY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A SEVERE MCS THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS
MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.

..THOMPSON

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