SWODY1
SPC AC 032001
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT TUE JUL 03 2007
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS....
..SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SWRN QUARTER OF THE U.S. HAS
RESULTED IN NWLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO THRU N CENTRAL MN INTO WRN SD/E CENTRAL WY.
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE NOW
CROSSING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BORDER OF MN/WI.
..UPPER GREAT LAKES...
AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF WI INTO IA AND ERN NEB AT
THIS TIME WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG FROM SRN
PARTS OF NRN MN EWD INTO THE NORTHWOODS OF WI...TO 3000 J/KG OVER
NERN IA/SERN SD/NERN NEB. SURFACE ANALYSIS/LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR
ILLUSTRATES BOUNDARY FROM W CENTRAL WI ESEWD TO JUST N OF MKE...AND
SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL MN...FROM SERN SD SWWD
INTO SWRN NEB AND NERN CO. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS POISED JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE MN/WI ACTIVITY WITH VALUES TO 40-50 KT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE/INTENSIFY AREA OF STORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
RUC MODEL TAKES CURRENT ACTIVITY SEWD INTO SRN WI AND NERN IA THRU
04/03Z...AND INTO NRN IL INTO SRN NEB THRU 04/06Z. LATEST RUC
SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE JUST BELOW 3000 J/KG AROUND LSE THIS EVENING
WITH LOW LFC/LCL AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE 7C/KM.
THUS...MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT GIVEN THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NEAR 40 KT HINTS AT
ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL.
..ERN CO...
STRONG WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ON RADAR COMPOSITE AT THIS
TIME FROM NERN CO SWWD THRU LIC THEN WWD JUST N OF COS. STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR LIC WHERE MLCAPE IS NEAR 1000
J/KG. SEE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 1368 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
.MCCARTHY.. 07/03/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment