SWODY1
SPC AC 061955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN PA/NY NEWD INTO ME...
..NY/NERN PA NEWD INTO ME...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MOVE
ESEWD AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. BEFORE THEN...HEATING OF WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY 3/4 TO 1 INCH SIZED HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY 00Z AS
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
..ERN AZ/WRN NM AND EXTREME SERN UT/SWRN CO...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SWWD INTO WRN NM/AZ...AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER NV...
RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING DUE TO WEAK
ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE
EVOLVED DUE TO MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WARMING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. AS STORMS MOVE SWWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DEEP INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.
..NRN LA SWWD INTO SRN TX...
A SLOW MOVING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED
EAST OF GGG AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW EWD ACROSS NRN LA AND SWWD INTO SRN TX.
DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED LOW/MID LEVEL
SHEAR PERSISTS EAST OF THE LOW...WITH A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR
ROTATING STORMS AND AN ISOLATED/VERY BRIEF TORNADO. FURTHER SWWD
ACROSS SRN TX...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONGER
CONVERGENCE LOCATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
NOT STRONG...ADDITIONAL HEATING AND STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A
FEW WET MICROBURSTS.
..NE CA/NWRN NV/SE ORE AND WRN MT...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CENTRAL CA AND ANOTHER IN SRN ID WERE MOVING
NEWD ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR
WITHIN UNUSUALLY HOT ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...AND EVEN
SOME SMALL HAIL IN WRN MT AND CENTRAL ID...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER THAN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
.IMY.. 07/06/2007
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