SWODY1
SPC AC 081950
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS
TO THE GRTLKS REGION AND PARTS OF NY...
..UPR MS VLY EWD ACROSS THE GRTLKS REGION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL DAKS THIS AFTN WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY. RECENT MESOANALYSIS HINTS AT A MESOSCALE LOW
DEVELOPING JUST N OF KMSP WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SERN SD.
SFC CONVERGENCE VCNTY THIS LOW AND FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ASCENT
CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT NW OF KMSP EARLY THIS AFTN.
ACARS SOUNDINGS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWED CONSIDERABLE
INHIBITION AND IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A STRONG COLD POOL/FRONT TO FORCE
PARCELS TO THE LFC. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY IN A ZONE FROM NEAR
KMSP EWD ACROSS NRN WI INTO CNTRL/SRN UPR MI THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
INITIAL CELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EMBEDDED IN A SUPERCELL WIND
PROFILE AND 100 MB MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...VERY
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. AS COLD POOLS STRENGTHEN... BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO CONTINUE EWD
INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN LWR MI FROM MID-EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
..LWR GRTLKS INTO NEW ENGLAND...
NEXT IN A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA WAS MOVING ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO WITH
CONSIDERABLE HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTION OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM INTO NY AND
CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING...OVERALL
CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE LACKING THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLD
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY YET DEVELOP THE LATTER PART OF HEATING LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...BUT PRIMARY SVR THREAT MAY AWAIT UNTIL
VERY LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER UPSTATE NY AND SWRN ONTARIO. DAKS
IMPULSE WILL BE IMPETUS FOR UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY ARRIVE IN
WRN/NRN NY ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY 12Z WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING
WIND THREATS.
..CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
19Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARCING FROM SRN SD
INTO NERN WY AND SERN MT WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NCNTRL NEB
TO THE CO FRONT RANGE. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS INCREASED BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT INTO SERN MT...NERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS OF SD THIS
AFTN. COMBINATION OF THE TYPICAL STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION. STRONGER TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE
BLACK HILLS REGION SWD INTO PARTS OF CO. THE NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BENEATH MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED MCS OVERNIGHT AND MOVE SEWD INTO PARTS OF NRN/WRN NEB WITH
ATTENDANT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THREATS.
.RACY.. 07/08/2007
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