SWODY1
SPC AC 102001
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007
VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVR THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS
VLY...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER UPSTATE NY/WRN AND NRN NEW
ENG...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS...
..UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
SEASONABLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW CENTERED NEAR INL SHOULD
CONTINUE E TO NRN PART OF LK SUPERIOR THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING
MORE NE TOWARD JAMES BAY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER
THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL CROSS NRN LK SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SE INTO THE MID MS VLY/
SRN PLNS. WELL-DEVELOPED CIRCULATION OF SFC LOW HAS RESULTED IN
DEVELOPMENT OF TWO PREFRONTAL TROUGHS/CONFLUENCE AXES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM NE MO/NRN IL INTO WRN MI.
TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT
IN UPR MI/CNTRL WI...AND ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGHS FROM NE MO INTO
IL/SE WI AND LWR MI. WITH MLCAPE AOA 1500 J/KG AND STRENGTHENING
MID LVL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO 40+ DEEP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY
SHEAR...SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS
FROM CNTRL WI NEWD INTO ERN UPR AND NRN LWR MI. WEAKER UPR FLOW
WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SVR THREAT
SWD INTO PARTS OF IL AND MO.
LARGE COMPONENT OF DEEP SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE INITIATION
FEATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF QUASI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. BUT DECIDEDLY LINEAR/PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
UPLIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGHS SUGGESTS THAT
DOMINANT MODE WITH TIME WILL BE QUASI-LINEAR. A POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME NE WI
AND CNTRL/ERN UPR MI...WHERE LOW LVL FLOW IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BACKED. OTHERWISE...MAIN SVR THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WIND SWD INTO IL/NE MO...AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY MORE
INTENSE/SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND MAY PERSIST AS
THE STORMS EVOLVE INTO BANDS AND CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS ERN IL/LWR MI
AND NRN IND THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
..NY/WRN AND NRN NEW ENG THROUGH EARLY EVENING...
UPSTATE NY AND WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF
UPR GRT LKS SFC LOW. SHALLOW BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY THAT NOSED INTO
MASSACHUSETTS BAY SHOULD ERODE FROM THE W AS LOW LVL WLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM GRT LKS TROUGH. COMBINATION OF RICH LOW
LVL MOISTURE...TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS AND CONVERGENCE ON
REMAINING SEGMENT OF BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 35 KT WLY MID
LVL FLOW ON SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS COULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED
STORMS/MARGINAL SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL/WIND.
..CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION...
20+ KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
AND A WEAK IMPULSE NOW IN SRN WV...HAVE FOSTERED DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS OF PULSE STORMS OVER THE CSTL
PLNS FROM NJ SWD INTO NC. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE TO THE
CST...WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL TIL SUNSET.
..LWR MS/LWR TN VLY W INTO SRN TX PANHANDLE/NE NM...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE MCV FROM OVERNIGHT MCS WILL CONTINUE
E ACROSS AR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BECOME DIFFUSE IN RECENT HOURS...BUT MAY YET
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY FROM ERN/SRN AR
WSW INTO THE RED RVR VLY. DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR W INTO THE SRN
TX PANHANDLE AND NE NM...WHERE BOUNDARY IS MERGING WITH INITIAL
SURGE OF COOL AIR MOVING S FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS.
WITH CONVERGENCE INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE FLOW PRESENT TO
INITIATE STORMS...AND MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT...
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID-LVL FLOW ON SRN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE MAY
RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS OR MARGINAL SUPERCELLS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT.
..CO FRONT RANGE...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE S ACROSS THE CO PLNS...WITH A
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW AND 58-60 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
BECOMING ESTABLISHED. CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
PLNS. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR STORMS WITH HAIL MAY NEVERTHELESS
FORM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND DRIFT SSEWD THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
.CORFIDI.. 07/10/2007
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