SWODY1
SPC AC 220057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AZ...
..ARIZONA...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER APPROXIMATELY THE
NERN HALF OF AZ...AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WHICH CONTINUES MOVING WWD ACROSS E CENTRAL AZ PER LATEST WV
IMAGERY. STORMS ARE MOVING GENERALLY WWD/SWWD INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS... WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. ACROSS THIS
AREA...EXPECT A FEW STRONGER STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS TO REMAIN CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS -- AT LEAST THROUGH
MID-EVENING.
..SERN GA/PARTS OF FL...
MUCH OF FL HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY PRIOR CONVECTION...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A LARGE DECREASE IN THREAT AREA THIS EVENING. OVERALL
STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS SERN GA/FL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING -- DUE BOTH TO ONGOING CONVECTION AS WELL AS THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING. THUS...EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
IN THE MEAN TIME...MIXED-LAYER CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG PERSISTING OVER E
CENTRAL AND SRN GA AND INTO NRN FL AND PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE
SUGGEST A LOCAL THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS TROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 22/03Z.
..NRN PLAINS...
AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED OVER MOST OF THE NRN PLAINS...THOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING/TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES OVER WRN SD AND VICINITY HAS
RESULTED IN A VERY DEEP/UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. ISOLATED/HIGH-
BASED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AS A RESULT OVER PARTS OF WRN SD -- WITH
STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BLACK HILLS. GUSTY/LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ELEVATED THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES...BUT MAY PERSIST/SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME AS SLY
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A FEW STRONGER CELLS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL AS CONVECTION
SPREADS/DEVELOPS NEWD INTO REGION OF GREATER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND PERHAPS W CENTRAL MN.
.GOSS.. 07/22/2007
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