SWODY2
SPC AC 231718
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2007
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS SRN CANADA
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO SASKATCHEWAN ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
THE NRN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT EWD FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAIN BELT OF WLY/S WILL REMAIN
ACROSS CANADA...THOUGH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SWRN CANADIAN
PROVINCES WILL STRENGTHEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW SWD INTO THE U.S.
PORTION OF THE NRN ROCKIES. FARTHER EAST...CLOSED LOW OVER VA/NC
IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE NATION.
..SRN PLAINS...
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER... IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUING ROTATING SWWD AROUND THE ROCKIES HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND SHIFT FROM SRN OK INTO SWRN TX DURING THE DAY.
ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK IN THE
MORNING...WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. NEWLY MID
LEVEL WINDS AND SWWD MOTION OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PROPEL STORMS
ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF TX DURING THE DAY. THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT IN THE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN WRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
STORMS POSSIBLY BECOME SURFACE BASED AND FUELED BY MORE UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...STORMS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY
HAVE RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS...WHICH IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TUESDAY...AND WOULD REDUCE INSTABILITY AND STEEPNESS OF LOW LEVEL
RATES. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS
PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
..PORTIONS OF ID...MT AND WY...
ALTHOUGH SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS ERN MT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASING UVV/S BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SW AND AREA
BEING LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET IN CANADA.
MODELS ALSO SHOW NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. STRENGTHING MID
LEVEL WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
..SERN STATES...
ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THE AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED.
CONVERGENCE ALONG REMNANT SURFACE FRONT AND COLLIDING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD GENERATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VEERING WIND PROFILES MAY PRODUCE A FEW
STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..SWRN STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD ACROSS UT/ERN NV. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AS THE
BASE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND SWWD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN
AREAS WHERE STRONG HEATING OCCURS PRIOR TO STORM
DEVELOPMENT..ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
.IMY.. 07/23/2007
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