DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230859
SWOD48
SPC AC 230859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2007

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

..DISCUSSION...
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES APPEAR LIKELY TO GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG OR
TO THE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. AND...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS COMING
TO A BETTER CONSENSUS CONCERNING THE ULTIMATE FATE OF THE WEAK
EASTERN STATES CUT-OFF LOW. IT NOW SEEMS PROBABLE THAT THE LOW WILL
BE FORCED EAST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING EASTERN CANADIAN POLAR TROUGH. THIS
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THE EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE CLOSED LOW...IT
APPEARS THAT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE
ROCKIES/PLATEAU REGION...WILL BE DIVERTED NORTHWARD INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE POLAR FRONT...INITIALLY WELL NORTH OF THE EASTERN
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...AS WELL AS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TOWARD THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION...AND
MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BOTH AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW...AND IN ITS WAKE...AS
MAIN POLAR FRONT FINALLY ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
LATER THIS WEEKEND.

.KERR.. 07/23/2007

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