SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011953
ARZ000-OKZ000-012100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1341
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 011953Z - 012100Z
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN AR. SMALL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES ARE OF
SOME CONCERN. HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL FOR A WATCH AT
THIS TIME.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER OSAGE COUNTY OK...WITH WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM LOW INTO HASKELL/LEFLORE
COUNTIES OK...AND SCOTT/MONTGOMERY/GARLAND/HOT SPRINGS COUNTIES AR.
SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKED TO EASTERLY ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY.
VAD PROFILES AT SRX AND LZK SHOW WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT A DEEP
VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. THIS IS SIMILAR /ALBEIT WEAKER/
TO THE WIND FIELDS PRESENT YESTERDAY OVER SOUTHWEST MO WHERE
ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRED. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE PAST HOUR AND HAVE SHOWN WEAK MID LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS. OVERALL TORNADO THREAT IS PROBABLY RATHER LOW DUE TO
WEAK WIND FIELDS. HOWEVER...ENHANCED SHEAR/CONVERGENCE ALONG
BOUNDARY AND INCREASING UNSTABLE AIR MASS /SBCAPE VALUES NOW EXCEED
2500 J/KG/ SUGGEST A MARGINAL THREAT OF SMALL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
BRIEF SPIN-UPS AND GUSTY WINDS.
.HART.. 07/01/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
35669376 35529282 35059213 34559235 34259325 34619400
34979451 35329458 35609433
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