SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012045
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-012215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL ND...NWRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 012045Z - 012215Z
SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS...A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SEVERAL MID-LEVEL ACCAS
BUILDUPS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN ND. THIS WAS INDICATIVE OF INCREASED
FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE /NOW ENTERING THE
WRN DAKOTAS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/. 19Z BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING WAS
STILL RATHER STRONGLY CAPPED TO MIXED-LAYER PARCELS.
HOWEVER...MODIFYING THIS SOUNDING FOR CONTINUED/STRONGER HEATING TO
THE W/SW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE CAP TOWARDS 22Z.
SURFACE-BASED INITIATION MAY OCCUR ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
ARCING N/NEWD FROM A SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN BUTTE COUNTY SD. GIVEN
NEARLY 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE LIKELY WITH LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...TORNADIC
POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED INVOF STATIONARY FRONT...AS WELL AS ON
THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS CNTRL SD INTO S-CNTRL ND THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
.GRAMS.. 07/01/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...
45680399 46180408 47180352 48090276 48550167 48560016
48149947 46589969 45530024 45320219 45340340
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