SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042128
MNZ000-WIZ000-042300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0428 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 042128Z - 042300Z
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM SERN MANITOBA AND A
FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN MN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED
LARGE SCALE FORCING. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS NRN MN. IT
APPEARS BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EXTEND FROM NEAR BJI/DTL
ESE TOWARD DLH WHERE A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS HAVE FORMED. MODERATELY
STRONG NWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH
COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THIS MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTN. THIS PATTERN FAVORS CONTINUED
UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT...SO THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN
INCREASING THREAT THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS.
.TAYLOR.. 07/04/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
46359226 46649654 48489664 48789531 48169135 47399084
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