SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082022
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-082145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MN...NWRN IA...SERN SD...N-CNTRL/NERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 082022Z - 082145Z
ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND TO
THE N OF EITHER A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR SLOW SWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT...TO THE SW OF WW 492. IF INITIATION DOES OCCUR...STRONG TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE
HAIL AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM
NEAR MKT SWWD TO YKN TO 30 W BBW. THE SURFACE FRONT PARALLELS THIS
TROUGH AROUND 50 MILES TO THE NW. CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN INCREASING
ON VIS IMAGERY IN BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES. MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S
SURFACE DEW POINTS LIE WITHIN THIS AXIS...SUPPORTING MLCAPES OF 3000
TO 4500 J/KG PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PRIMARY LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER ERN SD
SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED FARTHER E/NE. HOWEVER...MODEST LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 30 KTS/.
THIS SHOULD AID IN POTENTIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AS
THE MAIN THREAT.
.GRAMS.. 07/08/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...
41669913 41609994 41940077 42940109 43410041 43509890
44059758 44599642 44699542 44469473 43789464 43249545
42239734
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