MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1432

ACUS11 KWNS 092003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092003
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-092200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NY EWD INTO VT/NH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494...495...

VALID 092003Z - 092200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
494...495...CONTINUES.

THROUGH 21-22Z...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS
WW 495 ALONG AND S OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
/EXTENDING FROM JHW TO SYR TO SLK/...AND GENERALLY W OF WARM FRONT
/EXTENDING FROM E OF MSS SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE HUDSON VALLEY OF
GLF/.

TSTMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES SO FAR TODAY ACROSS WW
495 AREA...PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN QB. MORE
RECENTLY...STORMS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO ORGANIZE OVER ALLEGANY COUNTY NY
ALONG LAKE BREEZE AS WELL AS OVER MONTGOMERY COUNTY NY NEAR
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH HAS SET UP ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY.
18Z ALB SOUNDING INDICATES THAT ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/JUST W OF THE HUDSON VALLEY GIVEN MLCAPES OF AROUND 2500
J/KG...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-250
M2/S2. SHOULD STORMS BECOME SUSTAINED...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS REGION. A LOCALLY GREATER
SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE REMAINED BACKED...RESULTING IN STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

OVER WW 494...LOW-LEVEL WAA TO THE NE OF WARM FRONT HAS SUPPORTED
SOME BACKBUILDING STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NH...ALONG
ERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. WHILE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED. ELSEWHERE...A
CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS BECOME FOCUSED ALONG COLD FRONT ON THE WRN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT NOTED W OF MSS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND WW 494 MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

.MEAD.. 07/09/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

41967986 42407995 42807902 43387923 43527782 43407718
43617639 44207640 45117499 45077166 45487126 45367096
43427083 43277113 42867132 43077316 42387323 42317371
41977397 41977456 41777517 41907559

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