MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1451

ACUS11 KWNS 112008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112008
NVZ000-CAZ000-ORZ000-112245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CA SIERRA...NRN CA...WRN NV...SRN OREGON

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112008Z - 112245Z

STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SIERRA INTO WRN NV...NRN CA AND
EVENTUALLY SRN OREGON. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCT VORTICITY LOBE SHIFTING NWD INTO
NRN CA/NV WITH STREAM OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS HAMPERING HEATING AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...CLEARING WAS OCCURRING
SOUTH OF A SAC TO RNO LINE WITH TCU EVIDENT OVER THE SIERRA. STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE SIERRA AND WILL MOVE NWD INTO WRN NV.
GIVEN STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE A LIKELIHOOD. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS PRESENT GIVEN STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME MARGINAL HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE MELTING WILL BE MINIMIZED. OVERALL...WIND PROFILES DO
NOT FAVOR PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW LONGER LIVED CORES.

FARTHER N INTO NRN CA AND SRN OREGON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETARD
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. PASSAGE OF VORT LOBE
WILL ALLOW 700 MB FLOW TO VEER TO MORE OF A SLY DIRECTION...FAVORING
UPSLOPE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MTNS OF NRN CA. ELY FLOW ACROSS SRN
OREGON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS OVER THE E SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD OUT OF CA AND MID LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH WILL FAVOR HAIL GROWTH...GENERALLY AROUND 1.00 INCH
OR LESS.

.JEWELL.. 07/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...HNX...MFR...STO...PQR...EKA...

36491860 37771951 38512005 39292071 40472227 40732342
41302375 41942356 42382287 42782256 43592237 43632180
43302063 42631841 42021789 39381763 37431738 36541771
36301822

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