SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142224
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-150000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE KS/SE NEB...EXTREME SRN IA AND NRN MO
INTO WEST CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 142224Z - 150000Z
THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INHIBITION HAS BECOME
NEGLIGIBLE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT INTO PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE
EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHERE
MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW RANGES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS IS GENERALLY
WELL REMOVED FROM STRONGER FORCING/CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES POLAR TROUGH. AND...THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS TO
BE SLOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING...AND MODELS ARE
SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY/SHORTLY AFTER
15/00Z...THROUGH THE 15/03Z TIME FRAME. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...INSTABILITY IS FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AND...UNSATURATED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY SUPPORT A FEW LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS. WINDS COULD REMAIN FAIRLY
GUSTY ALONG SOUTHWARD SPREADING OUTFLOWS THROUGH MID TO LATE
EVENING.
.KERR.. 07/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
40079558 40499546 40819506 40859414 40809337 40799198
40869111 40948983 40448916 39888939 39539129 39349289
39129395 39269490 39509539
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment