SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152214
NEZ000-152345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL...SRN AND ERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 520...
VALID 152214Z - 152345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 520
CONTINUES.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WW AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT LATER
THIS EVENING.
UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY...SUPPORTED
BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EAST OF HIGH PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS...AND MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
NOW DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. POOL OF MID/UPPER 60S SURFACE
DEW POINTS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG NEAR/NORTH OF GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED GROWTH OF STORM CLUSTER IN A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE 15/23-16/01Z TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...
UNSATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...A FEW DOWNBURSTS AND A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH MERGING OUTFLOWS.
THIS COULD AFFECT AREAS AS FAR EAST AS NORFOLK/LINCOLN...AND AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE KANSAS BORDER...BY EARLY TO MID EVENING.
.KERR.. 07/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
42179914 42609864 41899666 41109635 40499665 40289875
40249970 40080115 40690052 41190029 41679968
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