SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162224
IAZ000-MNZ000-170030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MN AND MUCH OF IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 524...525...
VALID 162224Z - 170030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 524...525...CONTINUES.
VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCHES 524 AND 525 CONTINUE UNTIL 04Z. IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADOES...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SHOULD CONSIDERABLY INCREASE FROM FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO A LARGE PART
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS FEATURE EXPANDING COLD POOL/MATURING MCS ALONG
THE MN-IA BORDER NEAR THE ESTHERVILLE IA AREA. WITH THE EVOLVING
COLD POOL...STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS IA SUGGEST CONTINUAL UPSCALE
GROWTH/EXPANSION OF A SEVERE MCS ACROSS NORTHERN IA. IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DRAMATICALLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
ALGONA/FT DODGE/WEBSTER CITY/CLEAR LAKE IA AREAS AND I-35 CORRIDOR.
EARLY INDICATIONS OF THIS MAY BE THE RECENT 43 KT GUST OBSERVED AT
WINDOM MN AS OF 2115Z...AND A 42 KT GUST AT WORTHINGTON MN AT 2135Z.
A 43 KT GUST WAS ALSO JUST REPORTED AT JACKSON MN AS OF 2158Z.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES AS WELL ACROSS WATCHES
524/525...PRIMARILY IN EASTERN IA NEAR EFFECTIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS WITH ANY QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE EVOLVING MCS. IN EASTERN IOWA...LOCAL
ENVIRONMENT NEAR ROUGHLY NORTH-SOUTHEAST EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES/POSSIBLE TORNADOES...GENERALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 218 CORRIDOR FROM IOWA CITY TO WASHINGTON TO MOUNT
PLEASANT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN THE
TRAINING STORM MOTIONS.
.GUYER.. 07/16/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
44169500 43779229 42339120 40719119 40829371 42279488
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