SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172110
MTZ000-IDZ000-172215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MT...NRN ID
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 172110Z - 172215Z
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
LATEST VISIBLE/WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE UPPER VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS ERN ORE INTO WRN ID. AHEAD OF THIS VORT MAX...THE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM
1000-1500 J/KG. GENERALLY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR /LESS THAN 30 KTS/
WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL GROWTH.
HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. A
WW IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR
THREAT.
.CROSBIE.. 07/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX...
48891536 48441660 46821616 45531548 45191502 45081447
44751356 45251149 45331137 48981176
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