SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172144
SDZ000-NEZ000-180015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL NEB/SCENTRAL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 172144Z - 180015Z
ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR
WIND/HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE DEVELOPING EWD. A
WW IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z...GIVEN LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING
AND ORGANIZATION THROUGH THEN. A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING
OVER FAR ERN SD.
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ALONG SD/NEB BORDER...WHERE STRONG HEATING...DEEP MIXING
WERE OCCURRING ALONG WITH MINIMAL CINH. GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND HIGH T/AD DEPRESSIONS...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES
FROM 1000-2000 J/KG/ SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST TSTMS. DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST INTO SERN SD...WHERE
STRONGER INSTABILITY /BUT GREATER CINH EXISTS/ REMAINS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER
THIS EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
.CROSBIE.. 07/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
43739856 43700059 43490145 43100220 42880230 42750215
42720181 42700079 42689975 42619853 42879771 43539800
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