SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182135
MTZ000-IDZ000-WAZ000-182330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0435 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MT...NRN ID AND FAR NERN WA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 182135Z - 182330Z
ISOLATED SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BEFORE 00Z. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW BEFORE THEN.
RECENT VIS IMAGERY SHOWS MDT CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN OVER THE
BITTEROOT MTNS OF NRN ID AND FAR WRN MT. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WAS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...AS A AN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WWD INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY
INCREASING ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. AS AN APPROACHING VORT LOBE
/ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE ORE COAST/ MOVES NEWD
INTO THE REGION...INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NERN WA AND THE ERN ID PANHANDLE. STEEP
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT DMGG WIND THREAT.
RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS /NOTED BY LACK OF GREATER COVERAGE OF
CU/TCU/ SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/SVR THREAT MAY REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED.
.CROSBIE.. 07/18/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...
49041838 47751743 47321678 46651623 45511552 45251510
45341434 45971321 46391318 47171339 48481357 48961379
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