SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231641
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-231815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...CNTRL KS...NW AND NCNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231641Z - 231815Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SE NEB...CNTRL KS INTO
NCNTRL AND NW OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGER CELLS MAY
HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WW
ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS EVIDENT ON SFC ANALYSIS EXTENDING FROM
ERN NEB SWD ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO CNTRL OK. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY
SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED WWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION WITH THE MOST
NOTABLE BEING LOCATED IN SE NEB...NRN KS AND NW OK. AS SFC TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...STORM INITIATION WILL
BECOME LIKELY ALONG THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. 12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL MAY OCCUR
IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE MORE-ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS THIS
AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM MAY ALSO
SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
.BROYLES.. 07/23/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
41919718 41649662 40419631 38529668 36979705 35879722
35379815 35549892 36309903 38079880 39929875 41289884
41869809
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