MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1574

ACUS11 KWNS 250237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250236
MNZ000-SDZ000-250330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MN AND EXTREME ERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250236Z - 250330Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST WITH STORMS OVER
SWRN MN NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT...BUT MAY
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OR SWLY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW.

THIS EVENING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SWRN MN
NEAR MONTEVIDEO. ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT AND AS A RESULT
MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
A REGION OF ASCENT ATTENDING A VORT MAX THAT IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SWD.
COLDER 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 8.5 C ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE IS
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE 01Z WOOD
LAKE PROFILER SHOWS 25 TO 30 KT NWLY FLOW IN THE 3-8 KM LAYER ALONG
WRN PERIPHERY OF VORT MAX BENEATH LIGHT SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...CONTRIBUTING TO 30-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR MODEST
UPDRAFT ROTATION SUGGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
HAIL NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND
LACK OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE
SUSTAINED BEYOND ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED.

.DIAL.. 07/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

45349568 45119501 44439507 43929548 43899608 44329663
45109612

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