SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272204
MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-272330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE DE RIVER VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 272204Z - 272330Z
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST E OF WW 555 THIS EVENING. THIS
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND AN ADDITIONAL
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
AS OF 2150Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A CONVECTIVE LINE
SEGMENT FROM SCHOHARIE COUNTY NY SWD TO PIKE COUNTY PA...WHILE A
MORE CONTINUOUS TSTM LINE WAS NOTED FROM NEAR BHM TO BWI. WHILE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE MOVING NNE AT 25-30 KT...THE LINES THEMSELVES
ARE MOVING MORE SLOWLY EWD AT 15-20 KT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES APPEARS TO BE
PROVIDING BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR ONGOING STORMS WITH
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.
REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT E OF WW 555. STILL...MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THROUGH 01-02Z.
.MEAD.. 07/27/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
39837593 41597491 42937390 43077332 42627281 41307354
39887449 39417513
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