SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272225
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL AND E-CNTRL/SERN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 272225Z - 280000Z
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS REGION THIS EVENING. A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NEAR DNV SWWD
TO NEAR STL AND THEN WWD TO VICINITY OF MKC. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM INTERSECTION
WITH FRONT NE OF STL SSEWD TO E OF PAH. AIR MASS S OF COLD FRONT
AND W OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST WITH
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO KY APPEARS TO HAVE
SHIFTED WELL SE OF REGION...WITH ONGOING STORMS LIKELY BEING
SUSTAINED BY RATHER STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE MODEST
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
CURRENT STL/PAH VWPS SHOW RELATIVELY PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS
WITH HEIGHT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL...HOWEVER
OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
/25-30 KT THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL/. WHILE SOME HAIL AND/OR
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS...RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY TEND TO LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
THREAT.
.MEAD.. 07/27/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
38819114 39129052 39088961 38128857 37278802 36768860
37359034
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